The Cannes Film Festival has long been recognized as a harbinger of the cinematic trends that will define the year ahead. The recently concluded 77th Cannes Film Festival, with Greta Gerwig presiding as jury president, showcased an array of films that are already being earmarked as frontrunners for the 2025 Oscars. Among the most notable is Sean Baker’s “Anora,” which clinched the prestigious Palme d’Or, setting the stage for what could be an illustrious awards season.
The Cannes Film Festival is not merely an event for bestowing awards; it holds a mirror to the future of cinema. The varied stories and innovative approaches of this year’s winners underline a broader shift towards inclusivity and creativity. The trajectory from Cannes glory to Oscar gold is a well-trodden path, and 2024’s selections suggest a promising journey ahead.
One of the most talked-about winners, Sean Baker’s “Anora,” distributed by Neon, has already drawn comparisons to past Palme d’Or winners like “Parasite” and “Titane.” Neon, enjoying an unparalleled five-year streak of wins, has a track record of translating Cannes success into Oscar nominations. Films like “Parasite” and “Triangle of Sadness” have carved out significant recognition, culminating in several Academy Award nods. With “Anora,” Neon appears poised for another successful Oscar campaign, potentially landing nominations in categories such as Best Picture and Best Actress for Mikey Madison.
The influence of Cannes on the Oscars is well documented. Historically, Palme d’Or recipients have garnered a staggering 143 Oscar nominations, resulting in 33 wins. Last year, “Anatomy of a Fall,” another Neon-distributed film, secured nominations in five Oscar categories, winning for Best Original Screenplay. Such precedents build a compelling case for “Anora” as it embarks on its awards journey.
Another significant win at Cannes was Payal Kapadia’s “All We Imagine as Light,” which took home the Grand Prix. This milestone is monumental for Indian cinema, marking the first Indian female-directed film to compete in Cannes’ main competition in 30 years. Historically, Grand Prix winners have also enjoyed success at the Oscars, with 17 films receiving 35 nominations and securing ten wins.
. Kapadia’s film is poised to be a strong candidate for Best International Feature Film, riding high on its Cannes victory.
Karla Sofía Gascón’s performance in Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez” earned her a share of the Best Actress award. The film, which explores complex themes of gender identity, also stars Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez, and is likely to resonate with the Academy’s evolving focus on diversity and representation. Given its Jury Prize win, “Emilia Pérez” could potentially break into several acting categories at the Oscars, should it be selected as Mexico’s official submission.
The Best Director accolade went to Miguel Gomes for his film “Grand Tour.” While only seven Cannes Best Director winners have subsequently been nominated for an Oscar, the quality and depth of Gomes’ storytelling might see him follow in the footsteps of past winners who have achieved considerable Oscar success, such as Alejandro González Iñárritu for “Babel” and Joel Coen for “Fargo.”
Coralie Fargeat’s “The Substance” won Best Screenplay, positioning it as another strong contender for the Oscars. Cannes’ Best Screenplay winners have consistently gained recognition at the Academy Awards, with recent successes like Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “Drive My Car” earning multiple nominations. With an ensemble cast featuring Demi Moore, Margaret Qualley, and Dennis Quaid, Fargeat’s screenplay may secure a nomination in the Original Screenplay category.
Jesse Plemons’ win for Best Actor in “Kinds of Kindness” positions him as a formidable Oscar contender. Cannes Best Actor winners historically have a strong track record at the Oscars, with sixteen winners going on to receive nominations. Plemons, previously nominated for “The Power of the Dog,” once again showcases his range in Yorgos Lanthimos’ film, which might pave the way for another Oscar nomination.
Meanwhile, Mohammad Rasoulof’s film “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” received a Special Prize. Although films with special mentions at Cannes have had limited Oscar success, Rasoulof’s compelling narrative of filming under oppressive conditions in Iran could strike a chord with Academy voters. This has parallels to Michael Moore’s “Bowling for Columbine,” which won a Special Prize at Cannes and later an Oscar for Best Documentary Feature.
The 77th Cannes Film Festival has thus unveiled a diverse lineup of films that are not only reflective of current cinematic trends but also potential heavyweights for the 2025 Oscars. As the awards season unfolds, the ripple effects of Cannes will undoubtedly continue to shape the narrative, setting the stage for an exciting and competitive road to the Oscars.
