Cannes often serves as the launchpad for films that will dominate the awards circuit in the months to come. The 77th Cannes Film Festival, presided over by jury president Greta Gerwig, crowned Sean Baker’s Anora with the Palme d’Or. As the festival closed its curtains, it not only celebrated the brilliance of this year’s winners but also set the stage for early prognostications regarding their trajectories towards the 2025 Oscars.
Cannes’ influence extends beyond mere awards; it shapes the narrative of the film year, providing a preview of the thematic and stylistic trends that will dominate discussions. This year’s winners, with their diverse stories and unique voices, reflect a broader push towards inclusivity and innovation in cinema. Whether these films will convert their festival victories into Oscar gold remains to be seen, but history and the current cultural climate suggest a promising road ahead.
Arguably, the most significant indicator comes from Sean Baker’s Anora, distributed by Neon, which is at the forefront of this discussion. Neon has been on an impressive winning streak at Cannes, and Anora follows in the Oscar-soaked footsteps of Parasite (2019), Titane (2021), Triangle of Sadness (2022), and Anatomy of a Fall (2023). With this achievement, Neon has secured an unprecedented five consecutive Palme d’Or wins.
This track record bodes well for Anora’s Oscar campaign, as three of the last four Neon-distributed Cannes winners received Best Picture nominations at the Oscars. Just last year, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall was nominated in five categories at the 2024 Oscars: Best Director for Justine Triet, Best Actress in a Leading Role for Sandra Hüller, Best Original Screenplay for Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Best Editing, and Best Picture, and it clinched the award for Original Screenplay. Notable too is Parasite, which did not just win the Palme d’Or but also made history by winning Best Picture at the Oscars, a feat not achieved since Marty in 1955.
Neon’s strategic acumen in leveraging Cannes wins for successful Oscar campaigns cannot be overstated. With both Anora and The Seed of the Sacred Fig under its belt, the distributor is well-positioned to repeat its previous success. Anora seems poised to secure nominations in several categories, including Best Picture and potentially Best Actress for Mikey Madison.
In addition to Anora, Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine as Light made waves by winning the Grand Prix, marking a significant milestone for Indian cinema. It is the first Indian film in 30 years to compete in Cannes’ main competition and the first Indian female-directed film to do so. Historically, the Grand Prix has been a reliable indicator of Oscar potential. Seventeen Grand Prix winners have earned 35 Oscar nominations, with seven films securing ten wins. Last year’s Grand Prix winner, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, similarly received five Oscar nominations, winning Best International Feature and Best Sound.
Kapadia’s film now stands a strong chance in the Best International Feature Film category. The Grand Prix win positions it as a prime candidate for India’s submission for the Best International Feature Film category, enhancing its readiness as a serious contender at the Oscars.
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Meanwhile, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, recipient of the Jury Prize, is another film to watch. The film showcases a groundbreaking narrative exploring gender identity, led by Karla Sofía Gascón’s standout performance. Although the Jury Prize does not always correlate with Oscar success, past winners have still amassed 39 Oscar nominations and nine wins. Emilia Pérez could potentially break the mold with its strong ensemble cast, including Zoe Saldana and Selena Gomez, suggesting potential acting nominations. The film’s innovative approach may resonate with the Academy’s evolving sensibilities towards diversity and representation, positioning it as a potential submission from Mexico.
Director Miguel Gomes’ Grand Tour, which won the Best Director prize, presents another potential Oscar contender. While only seven Cannes Best Director winners have been nominated for an Oscar, the quality and scope of Gomes’ storytelling in Grand Tour might earn him a spot among the contenders. Previous Cannes winners in this category, such as Alejandro González Iñárritu for Babel (2006) and Joel Coen for Fargo (1996), have seen significant Oscar success, hinting at a possible breakthrough for Gomes.
Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance, awarded Best Screenplay, also positions itself as a formidable Oscar contender. Cannes’ Best Screenplay winners have seen increased recognition at the Oscars recently, with Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car (2021) earning nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, and winning the Best International Feature. Fargeat’s screenplay, starring Demi Moore, Margaret Qualley, and Dennis Quaid, stands a strong chance in the Original Screenplay category at next year’s Oscars.
Jesse Plemons’ Best Actor win for Kinds of Kindness positions him as an early Oscar contender. Historically, sixteen winners of the Best Actor award at Cannes have gone on to receive Academy Award nominations. Plemons, previously nominated for The Power of the Dog (2021), showcases his versatility in Yorgos Lanthimos’ film, portraying various characters across three vignettes. Lanthimos’ recent films have fared well at the Oscars, with 2018’s The Favourite and last year’s Poor Things, both winning Best Actress and securing multiple nominations. Plemons’ performance could follow a similar trajectory, potentially leading to his second Oscar nomination.
Finally, Mohammad Rasoulof’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig, awarded a Special Prize, confronts a challenging path to the Oscars. Historically, films receiving special mentions at Cannes have had limited success at the Oscars. However, Rasoulof’s harrowing personal story of filming under oppressive conditions in Iran provides a compelling backstory that could sway Academy voters, as seen with Michael Moore’s Bowling for Columbine (2002), which won the 55th Anniversary Prize at Cannes and later the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature.
In summary, the 77th Cannes Film Festival winners are not just celebrating their accolades but also gearing up for a potential run at the 2025 Oscars. As history has often shown, Cannes can be a strong precursor to Oscar glory, and with Neon’s strategic prowess, diverse storytelling, and push towards inclusivity, this year’s festival victors hold promising prospects on the road to the Oscars.
