In a notable reassessment of India’s economic trajectory, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) upgraded its growth forecast for the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 7 percent, up from its previous estimation of 6.7 percent. The ADB attributes this improved outlook to a combination of vigorous public and private investment and a gradual uptick in consumer demand.
Despite this positive adjustment, the anticipated growth falls short of the 7.6 percent surge experienced in fiscal year 2022-23. In the previous fiscal period, India’s economic expansion was propelled mainly by solid investment, while consumer spending exhibited more subdued activity. These findings were presented in the ADB’s latest Asian Development Outlook update.
This reassessment comes after the ADB projected in December of the previous year that India would attain a growth rate of 6.7 percent in the fiscal year 2024-25. According to the ADB, India’s economic performance remained buoyant during fiscal 2023, with noticeable momentum in manufacturing and services sectors. The bank predicts that this rapid growth will sustain over the forecast period, energized largely by resilient investment demand paired with burgeoning consumption. Furthermore, the ADB anticipates that inflation will persist with its downward trend, moving in step with global patterns.
Even as India is expected to confront moderating growth in the coming fiscal years, the outlook remains robust. The ADB has put forth a projection of a 7.2 percent GDP growth for India in fiscal year 2025-26. On the export front, India may experience relatively subdued figures this fiscal year due to a deceleration in the economies of significant advanced countries. However, the prospects are expected to ameliorate in fiscal year 2025.
The ADB forecasts that monetary policy will likely continue to bolster growth as inflation wanes, while fiscal policy will focus on consolidation but maintain backing for capital investments. This delicate balance suggests that growth could dip to 7 percent in fiscal year 2024 but sees potential improvement to 7.2 percent the following year. To enhance export potential in the medium term, ADB suggests that India needs more profound integration into global value chains.
Corroborating the ADB’s perspective, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) echoed similar sentiments. The RBI recently posited that the GDP growth rate for the current fiscal would be around 7 percent, underpinned by the expectations of a normal monsoon, mitigating inflationary pressures, and continued industry and service sector dynamism.
Diving into policy impacts, the ADB indicated that to invigorate exports over the medium-term horizon, India must deepen its integration with global value chains. This approach, perhaps coupled with policy incentives, would position India favorably within the international trade ecosystem.
The convergence between the RBI and ADB’s forecasts underscores a broader consensus on the fundamental strengths and resilience of the Indian economy amidst a complex global economic landscape. Still, with formidable growth projected in investment and a hopeful rebound in consumer demand, India seems poised to navigate the nuanced fiscal terrain ahead.
Crucially, the consistency between the predictions of major economic authorities like the ADB and RBI offers a reassuring picture to investors and policymakers alike. As the nation’s economy unfolds its growth story, the robust investment culture and the expected easing of inflation present a favorable groundwork for sustained economic development, not just for India, but potentially for the broader South Asian region as an intricate part of the interwoven global economic fabric.
