The election of a lesser-known reformist as Iran’s new president opens the door to possible diplomatic talks regarding the country’s contentious nuclear program. This development gains significance, especially considering the anticipated stance of the winner of the US presidential election in November, who may seek to revive negotiations.
Masoud Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old heart surgeon and former health minister, secured 53% of the votes in a runoff election held on Friday. He is set to succeed Ebrahim Raisi, the ultra-conservative former president who died tragically in a helicopter crash in May. Currently serving as a member of Parliament, Pezeshkian is regarded as a moderate within Iran’s Shi’ite leadership. He has committed to relaxing social restrictions, including the compulsory hijab for women.
Throughout his brief campaign, Pezeshkian emphasized his intention to engage directly with the United States to alleviate the harsh sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy. In a speech delivered on Saturday, July 6, Pezeshkian stated his mission to seek enduring peace, stability, and cooperation in the region, complemented by dialogue and constructive interactions with the global community.
However, Pezeshkian’s ambitious foreign policy agenda will face formidable challenges. Iran’s Parliament remains under the control of hardliners, and the ultimate authority on all state matters lies with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The unexpected victory of a reformist candidate like Pezeshkian for the first time since 2001 signals a potential shift in Iran’s political landscape. Ali Vaez, the Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, told Al-Monitor that this outcome reflects Iran’s leadership’s awareness of the necessity for change. According to Vaez, there is now a greater political will in Tehran to arrive at an understanding with the West, which could provide some economic reprieve.
Pezeshkian has been a strong advocate for reinstating the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers. This deal imposed stringent limitations on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. However, since former President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the agreement in 2018 and reimposed severe sanctions, Iran has progressively advanced its nuclear program. The US now estimates that Tehran’s breakout period—the time required to amass enough material for one nuclear bomb, should it choose to—has dwindled from one year to merely “weeks or less.”
When asked about the potential for renewed nuclear diplomacy under Pezeshkian’s administration on Monday, July 8, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller indicated that the US would wait for Pezeshkian to assume office before pursuing any diplomatic engagements. While Miller maintained that diplomacy remains the optimal route for resolving Iran’s nuclear issue, he also acknowledged the current absence of any meaningful path to resolution due to ongoing escalations by Iran.
The relationship between Iran and the West remains strained, exacerbated by Iran’s provision of armed drones to Russia, which have intensified the conflict in Ukraine. In the immediate aftermath of his election victory, Pezeshkian contacted Russian President Vladimir Putin to reaffirm Tehran’s support for Moscow. He also conveyed to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that Iran’s support for resistance groups would continue unabated.
Despite a reduction in attacks against US forces by Iran-aligned factions in Syria and Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon continues its hostilities with Israel.
. Meanwhile, Houthi rebels in Yemen have been targeting maritime trade routes in the Red Sea and adjacent waters for several months. Over the past year, senior US officials have conducted numerous rounds of indirect negotiations with Iranian representatives in Oman to try to de-escalate tensions.
Vali Nasr, a professor specializing in international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University, pointed out that sanctions-hit Iran still has motivations to maintain dialogues with the US. Nasr suggested that Pezeshkian’s principal objective is to find avenues for engagement with the West. He added that Ayatollah Khamenei has shown openness to serious diplomatic efforts, illustrated by the Raisi administration’s participation in talks in Vienna. President Joe Biden had pledged to resurrect the defunct nuclear agreement upon taking office. After over a year of indirect negotiations in Vienna, there was a glimpse of reaching a deal.
However, the Iranians then raised demands that the Biden Administration found unacceptable, such as guaranteeing that future US presidents would not abandon the agreement. By November 2022, Biden declared the deal defunct. The following year, Iran facilitated the release of five Americans in a prisoner exchange, granting Tehran limited access to $6 billion in frozen funds. Yet, these funds were once more restricted after October 7.
Experts suggest that Pezeshkian is likely to populate his foreign policy team with seasoned diplomats who have previously collaborated with the Biden Administration on the nuclear deal and during President Obama’s tenure. Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who worked closely with then Secretary of State John Kerry on the original negotiations, campaigned for Pezeshkian and may remain in an advisory capacity. It is anticipated that Zarif’s former deputy, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, could be appointed as the new foreign minister.
Vaez also highlighted that Pezeshkian’s new foreign policy team provides the West with a credible partner in Tehran who comprehends the intricacies of international diplomacy. As Tehran closely observes the upcoming US presidential election, the outcome could significantly influence Iran’s next steps. A Trump victory could resurrect his Administration’s “maximum pressure campaign” to coerce Iran into agreeing to a more stringent nuclear deal encompassing regional terrorism and missile programs. Conversely, a second term for Biden or a new Democratic president could renew efforts towards a limited deal to restrain Iran’s nuclear aspirations.
Analysts agree that Iran’s nuclear program has progressed to a stage where reverting to the 12-month “breakout time” stipulated by the 2015 deal appears improbable. Consequently, Iran is unlikely to make any substantial concessions until the US presidential election results are known. Biden is also unlikely to offer any concessions before November.
The de-escalation talks could resume, possibly discretely, during the UN General Assembly in New York this September, given the impending presidential election. Nasr suggested that irrespective of whether Trump or Biden wins in January, Pezeshkian’s election presents an opportunity for the West to explore the feasibility of a serious diplomatic course to address the nuclear issue and alleviate tensions.
